Sunday, November 24, 2013

November 24th 2013: The Kirk Report for $100, Alex?

For the not-so-princely sum of $100 per YEAR (not per month), you can have access to the trading brain of Charles Kirk via his namesake, The Kirk Report.

Charles brings with him an extreme work ethic that helped him turn a tiny $2K porfolio into a relatively huge $7M account.  I haven't done the math to figure out the average yearly compounding, but we can say for sure that he's done well at trading.  At this stage, he can afford a more balanced life, but that doesn't seem to diminish from the virtual fire hose of information that he shares daily via email updates (pre and post market updates), weekend updates (flipboard magazine and week-in-review video), as well as a real-time, twitter-like, link-fest called the "Notebook".

In general, some of my favorite posts are the in-depth interviews with other traders who have reached that elite multi-million (or higher) status.  It's Jack Schwager's Stock Market Wizards in real-time.  Where else are going to find this stuff?  One of my all-time favorite posts of his was a 2012 "self interview" titled simply, "How I made 54K last week".

Perhaps his greatest talent is the ability to see and map out price patterns and possibilities in the S&P500 chart on multiple time frames (from weekly to 1 min charts).  He identifies the patterns (mainly cup & handle and variants like head & shoulders) that seemingly everyone (including the HFT algo's) are watching.  Even if you don't trade patterns, it's useful to be aware that he's trading them, other pattern traders are trading them, and the algo's are trading them.  The completion or failure of these bullish or bearish patterns also gives a sense of the strength of the underlying trend.  For example, if the bearish pattern currently in play fails, a bullish one will often form and succeed.

Where else might you spend $100 on trading this year?
- 5 round trip trades?
- A tight stop?

Consider joining the Kirk Report for 2014 and earning a multiple of your $100 back.

In full disclosure, Charles is offering a "End of Year Drawing" with prizes for positive reviews.  My personal win-rate with random events like drawings is close to zero, so don't let the drawing color your interpretation of my review.

Monday, November 11, 2013

November 11th 2013: The importance of staying solvent...

"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent".
- John Maynard Keynes

ref.:http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes


On Thursday, the Dow busted its highs and then quickly reversed with volume on the downside.  The weak bounce into 12N had little volume, so I went short the Dow (and the S&P500 for good measure) right around 12N.  Nice entry.  Superior risk/reward over some other plays that I considered (including financials) and the market went my way the rest of the day and it was a nice easy ride down.  Don't you love it when a plan comes together?  I mean it was picture perfect distribution day with bearish engulfing candle that swallowed the last week's worth of price action and destroyed some bullish price patterns in the process.  And I was feeling rather pleased with myself.

Then, the payroll numbers hit @ 8:30A on Friday.  Bizarrely strong considering the fiasco in Washington, but I don't pay too much attention to fundamentals.  Bond market tanks immediately.  Dollar is flying, but fades intraday.  Equities dip slightly then recover fast and level out until 3:30P.  Financials absolutely ripped higher.

Perhaps I should have covered immediately.  Perhaps I should have gotten long something...anything really.  Instead, I just watched my gains evaporate and come just shy of my stop (Thursday's highs).  And while I was watching the market (equities, bonds, currencies), my thought was "are we really doing this?  really?"  Are we really going to have an accumulation day up here after we just ripped almost non-stop from the October lows?  Yup.

I stopped myself out today (Monday) and flipped long (small) in regional banks and solar.  My losses were small (because I had a good entry).  And it stings giving back those nice profits - especially since the odds of getting an accumulation day after a distribution up here were extremely low.  But it would be far worse to stubbornly hold onto my position when the market is doing the opposite of my expectations.

Repeat after me:
"The market can remain irrational a lot longer that you and I can remain solvent".

For more charts and to read a disclaimer, please visit my public chart list on stockcharts.com...
http://stockcharts.com/public/1109955