May 11th 2014: A tale of two cities.

After years(!) of relatively tight correlations between US equities, we're seeing a stark bifurcation in performance.  Specifically, if you look at charts of small and micro caps, high-beta high-tech, momentum plays, biotech, etc., you see a ton of charts, not just in correction, they're in their own private bear markets!  On the flip side, you see good amazing strength in boring, old, low-volatility, large and mega cap dividend names - many in the DJIA (GIS, K, CVS, PEP, KO, MCD, JNJ, etc.).  Volatility is very subdued even in $RVX and $VXN which is puzzling to me, but it is what it is.  XIV is strong.  There's literally hundreds of charts that I could post to exemplify this shift in market character, but 2 will suffice.  Here's a micro cap index showing the persistent weakness present in that sub-sector vs. consumer staples which seemingly can do no wrong.

Looking beyond the US, India (EPI, PIN, INDY, SCIF) is strong - led by big gains on Friday.  Emerging market bonds are strong (PCY, EMB) and look to be breaking out.

Here's a look at the Bombay Sensex and EMB:

We also have some pullbacks within strong uptrends to watch.  Here's 3....
TLT is pulling back nicely within a pattern that projects to 116-ish.  XOP is pulling back to re-test it's breakout @ 72.74.  EWC is pulling back to re-test its breakout @ 30.02.

So, what happens when you get all of this divergent price action?  You get a sloppy, choppy mess in the $SPX which annoys the heck out of $SPX traders.  That's actually a good thing.  We're burning off an overbought condition, running stops in both directions, filling gaps, and consolidating recent gains.  This pattern on the $SPXEW looks bullish to me, but symmetry also implies 2 more weeks of slop and chop.  A weekly close above 2987 (or below 2868) would break the range.

To sum up, we're in a good trading environment for flexible traders....or even inflexible ones.  IF you're a perma-bear, then congrats - there's plenty of stuff that looks like crap.  IF you're a perma-bull, then congrats - there's a bull market in cereal and soda.  IF you've been frustrated by the lack of pullbacks in this crazy bull market, well, we've got pullbacks for you within strong uptrends.  For my own trading, I'm doing a little of everything: short rentals in TZA and SQQQ, some longs in boring stuff like JNJ and PG, stalking pullbacks in TLT, EWC, and XOP, etc.

If you'd like to see more of my charts, check out my public chart list on stockcharts:

http://stockcharts.com/public/1109955

You can also follow me on stocktwits @weeklystockcharts

Thanks for reading.