May 5th 2013: Is this time really different for the $NDX???

The last 2 breakouts in the $NDX (see chart) were mediocre at best.  FORCE barely expanded and price went flat for weeks after the "breakouts".  However, this time might be different.  The $NDX busted out with wide price spread and higher FORCE than its had in the last 6 months.  That certainly looks bullish to me.

For most of the last 6 months, the Q's have lagged badly and I dutifully avoided them on the long side.  (Sometimes half the battle is staying away from the dogs).  But this week, the tide seemed to have turned.  For the first time in a long time, I was long QQQ calls this week and sold half on Thursday and half on Friday for some nice gains and currently have no position in the Q's.

Let's see if this breakout can stick.  IF it does, I'd be inclined to buy another dip - just as it starts to curl up again.  The number to watch is the previous box high at 2863.66.  That's my line in the sand.  Long above.

Here's the chart...

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